Colby Smithwick
Twitter: @Cas_NBA

Those Spurs cut deep

Let me start this thing off with a few things. 1, I am a Phoenix Suns fan. I hate both of these teams. 2, the following are playoff stats that all consist of the Top 5 players for each of the categories.

1:
The Offensive Win Shares per game leader is LeBron James. No other Miami player, or San Antonio player, is in the top 5 for that stat. San Antonio, though, has gone 7-0 for their last games after dropping their last win in Golden State. Miami is just 4-4 in the last 8 games. San Antonio is also 13-2 in the playoffs, while Miami’s 12-5…. And they also had a hell of a lot easier schedule than San Antonio.

2:
The Defensive Win Shares per game leader is LeBron, but Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard are only a .1 away from being tied with LeBron. Again, no other Miami member is in this category, but Father-time Duncan and the Sophomore Leonard are right there behind LeBron. I get that Duncan is the greatest Power Forward of all time… but come on, Miami, you’re really gonna let that old man and young blood Leonard outplay potential hall of famers? (LBJ, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh). I mean you guys have been here before, Leonard is just a sophomore yet he’s playing like he’s been in Popovich’s system since their first 4 championships.

3:
The OVERALL Win Shares per game leader is LeBron with 4,1, 2nd is Roy Hibbert, 3rd and 4th are Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard with both having a 2.2. Once again we see the lack of Miami players (Bosh and Wade both being all stars, Leonard and Hibbert weren’t) on this list, and this just shows how valuable LeBron is to Miami.

4:
The OVERALL Offensive Rating category shows us that LeBron and Kawhi Leonard are 4th and 5th on that list respectively, but are separated by a .2 difference only. Hmm…. 4 time MVP and a championship ring vs. a sophomore who was drafted 17th overall…. Remember when I said Leonard looks like he’s been with the Spurs for years? Yeah… that sounds about right.

5:
The OVERALL Defensive Rating category shows no Miami players on that list. San Antonio players on that list, though? Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili. With Duncan guarding Bosh, that really shouldn’t be a surprise. I mean, as smart of a ball player Duncan is, it doesn’t take much to realize that leaving Bosh wide open for an elbow 3. Not to mention, Duncan’s the only player in NBA history to be selected to both All-NBA and All-Defensive Teams during each of his first 13 seasons…. Which is why Bosh played pretty terribly in the first game (6-16 on FG’s and 0-4 on 3’s, and only 5 rebounds). Duncan, on the other hand, dominated Bosh and Haslem on the other end, going for 20 and 14.

6:
The Assist Rating stat shows no Miami player, but Tony Parker is only 2nd to Ty Lawson on that list by a .2. Parker’s ability to drive and demand so much attention in the paint causes the perfect rotation for the rest of SA’s offense, which often leads to wide open shots. Green hit 4 3’s, Garry Neal hit 1 and Manu put in 2 for himself. Leonard missed all 4 of his, but they were wide open as well.

So what do all these stats show us? They show us that LeBron is doing every damn thing possible to keep this Miami team going because there’s hardly any other player from Miami with a positive stat. Miami outshot and outrebounded San Antonio in the first half. Their lead, though, was only 52-49. MIA stayed ahead until Parker’s free throws gave SA a 77-76 edge with 7:47 left in the 4th quarter. James dished to Bosh for a jumper on the next possession for his 10th assist, but Leonard countered on the next possession. The Spur’s ability to linger made LeBron play 43 minutes and sit down at the beginning of the 4th, Wade play 36 minutes on his bum knee and he also joined LBJ on the bench to start the 4th, and Bosh just got destroyed by that Splitter-Duncan-Leonard combination

Tony Parker then capitalized on James’ 2nd turnover (by the way James is 2nd in the playoffs in turnovers, with D-Wade right behind him… oh and SA only had 4 turnovers in Game 1, by the way… and Tony Parker had 0) by executing that swift signature spinning layup. Oh how quickly the tides would turn. San Antonio was up 81-78 exactly halfway through the fourth at this point.

Remember that great 1st half Bosh and Wade had? Yeah, they pulled a Houdini on us in the 2nd half. Wade and Bosh combined for two points on 1-of-7 shooting in the fourth quarter. Wade In the first half had a PER of a staggering 34.8, but in the second half it was a horrendous 0.6.
Bosh missed an open 3-pointer (his 4th and final miss from the arch) with 1:02 left that would have cut the deficit to one point, and Wade missed a layup in the final seconds as Miami trailed by four (Wade opened Game 1 against the Spurs with a dunk, scored 13 of his 17 points in the first half, then came that second-half which he only scored 4 points in the 3rd and went scoreless in the fourth quarter.)

The only shots Bosh hit were 5 free-throw-line elbow shots. He missed all 4 shots he took in the paint, and Udonis Haslem only had 1 point and it was an elbow jumper as well. NORRIS FREAKING COLE HAD MORE POINTS IN THE PAINT THAN THE 2 STARTING BIG MEN COMBINED FOR MIAMI.

LeBron had 6 of his 7 shots go in all from the pain area, while that 7th shot was a 3 pointer. The 6 shots he missed were sporadic jump shots, 4 of which were 3-pointers. I mean, what the hell LeBron? You post up Paul George and dominate him in 1 game, then never do it again. You DESTROY the paint area every time you’ve been in it, BUT YOU DON’T GO THERE ENOUGH. The day Hell freezes over is the day Tim Duncan should make more free throws than you, oh wait that’s what happened in game 1. Duncan and Leonard both went 8-8 from the line while Ginobili and Parker went 6-8. That’s 4 players who are not nearly as athletic, strong, or have the ability to draw fouls like James and D-Wade do. Yet they’re dominating in that category. They’re getting Bosh in foul trouble, and this makes life so much harder for Birdman and Haslem because then they have to, uh, guard the greatest Power Forward of all time (who by the way, finishes the game with 20 points, 4 blocks, 3 assists and 14 rebounds).

Now, it’s time for the Finale. How often would you say a triple double hurts a team? Hardly ever, right? WELP…. LeBron had a triple double in game 1…. But it resulted in a -3 when it came to the plus/minus stat. Wade posted an -11, and Bosh posted a -9. The only players who had a positive plus/minus stat for MIA were Mike Miller, Ray Allen, and BIRDMAN Andersen. Those 3 combined for 25 points and an overall plus/minus of +20… and played more minutes than starters Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem (who combined for 4/11 shooting for 12 points).

There’s no doubt in my mind that we’re gonna see a comeback performance from Miami in Game 2. What they NEED to do, though, is do what the Spurs are doing. Move the ball, drive to the lane, and either dish out to a rotated 3-point shooter for the look or be the LeBron we all are waiting to see, and DUNK THE HELL OUT OF THE BALL. The more free throws LeBron and Wade take, the better Miami’s chances are of winning. Go back and look at the shot charts and box scores from the previous series. LeBron hits a few shots in the paint, the defense starts sliding in on him every time he drives, and then he either dishes it out for a rotated 3 or dumps it off to Wade for a (what should be if he wasn’t laboring on that knee) slam dunk, or vice versa. Get Duncan and Spliter in foul trouble. Make Popovich play the 6’9 DeJuan Blaire and the former Hawks-point-guard-turned-power-forward Borris Diaw.

One more thing before I get off. You can tell Bosh’s confidence is just not there anymore. Him spacing the floor is only effective if he’s hitting his long-range shots, but he isn’t. We either need to see a vintage Big 3 performance from LBJ, Bosh and Wade (like Wades season up to the All-Star break, Bosh in last years semi-finals against Boston OR his 20 and 10 days in Toronto, and LeBron should just go hard in the paint like Flocka Flame, or Gucci mane (rap reference, sorry about that…)). If the Wade and Bosh don’t perform like we’re used to seeing, it is ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY that the role players step up. Chalmers, Cole, Battier and Ray Allen MUST hit the open 3’s they’ve been getting. Birdman, you keep doing what you’re doing. You get the whole “cut to the lane for easy buckets” thing. Also I’d be terrified to say anything bad about you.

PREDICTION FOR GAME 2: LeBron’s passive at first, tries to get teammates involved. They start going off, Miami gets pumped. Wade and Bosh’s confidence grows and they start going. LeBron will go to the FT line more than the last game, but the Spurs are gonna keep it close… until LeBron takes over. I’m expecting this to be a double-digit win for Miami. It’s either gonna be the role players hitting 3’s or it’s Bosh and Wade being aggressive, we will not see the same lackadaisical performance from Game 1. My guts telling me LeBron’s dropping at least 30 and could possibly go for 40, and Miami will pull away in the 4th to cruise. After all, Miami is 10-0 coming off of their last 10 losses…. so I just hope the Spurs are ready for a very angry, vengeful Miami Heat team.

All stats provided by: http://www.basket-ballreference.com